V-Lab
Big Yellow Group PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
2,111.82
decreased by 31.46
1 Week
2,200.90
increased by 57.62
1 Month
2,395.52
increased by 252.24
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7018 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0395 | 0.03 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9605 | 0.78 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0435 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 0.0524 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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