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Big Yellow Group PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

2,111.82

decreased by 31.46

1 Week

2,200.90

increased by 57.62

1 Month

2,395.52

increased by 252.24

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Big Yellow Group PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 5, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7018
3.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0395
0.03
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9605
0.78
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0435
-0.01
γ20.0524
0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

346573 days