Big Yellow Group PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
2,638.00
decreased by 66.54
1 Week
2,750.67
increased by 46.13
1 Month
2,640.22
decreased by 64.32
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6056 | 0.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0373 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9627 | 0.35 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0407 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.0495 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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