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Big Yellow Group PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026

1 Day

3,056.89

decreased by 70.36

1 Week

3,184.59

increased by 57.34

1 Month

3,079.01

decreased by 48.24

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/26/2024

to

10/26/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Big Yellow Group PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 5, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~173286 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4532
3.46***
αARCH0.0380
1.02
βGARCH0.9620
25.92***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0198
-0.35

1.000

Persistence

173286d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4532
3.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0380
1.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9620
25.92***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0198
-0.35

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

173286 days