V-Lab
Big Yellow Group PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
2,194.35
1 Week
2,274.21
1 Month
2,487.54
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 54% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6926 | 1.20 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0280 | 12.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9645 | 797.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0150 | 3.92*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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