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Blau Farmaceutica S.A. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

5,793.12

decreased by 164.06

1 Week

5,902.64

decreased by 54.54

1 Month

6,452.79

increased by 495.61

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 02:43 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Blau Farmaceutica S.A. ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 2021 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1818
7.29***
αARCH0.0798
6.25***
βGARCH0.9052
54.87***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0351
-1.03

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1818
7.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0798
6.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9052
54.87***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0351
-1.03

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days