Blau Farmaceutica S.A. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
5,793.12
decreased by 164.06
1 Week
5,902.64
decreased by 54.54
1 Month
6,452.79
increased by 495.61
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 02:43 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 19, 2021 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1818 | 7.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.0798 | 6.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9052 | 54.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0351 | -1.03 |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1818 | 7.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0798 | 6.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9052 | 54.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0351 | -1.03 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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