Sohar International Bank SAOG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
19,859.66
increased by 11,768.77
1 Week
9,358.97
increased by 1,268.08
1 Month
5,655.63
decreased by 2,435.26
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2007 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 874 trading days (~3.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4162 | 1.69* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3228 | 5.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6764 | 12.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.1565 | -1.99** |
| γ2 | 1.3741 | 1.75* |
| γ3 | -0.4838 | -0.96 |
| γ4 | 1.0550 | 2.54** |
| γ5 | -0.7327 | -2.00** |
| γ6 | -0.9128 | -1.28 |
| γ7 | 0.4425 | 0.44 |
| γ8 | 2.1803 | 2.40** |
| γ9 | -8.4111 | -3.02*** |
| γ10 | 19.9069 | 2.51** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
874 days
Other Sohar International Bank SAOG Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities