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Sohar International Bank SAOG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

19,859.66

increased by 11,768.77

1 Week

9,358.97

increased by 1,268.08

1 Month

5,655.63

decreased by 2,435.26

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sohar International Bank SAOG ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2007 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 874 trading days (~3.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4162
1.69*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3228
5.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6764
12.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.1565
-1.99**
γ21.3741
1.75*
γ3-0.4838
-0.96
γ41.0550
2.54**
γ5-0.7327
-2.00**
γ6-0.9128
-1.28
γ70.4425
0.44
γ82.1803
2.40**
γ9-8.4111
-3.02***
γ1019.9069
2.51**

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

874 days