Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
17,243,350.00
decreased by 101,290.00
1 Week
17,293,995.00
decreased by 50,645.00
1 Month
14,565,342.63
decreased by 2,779,297.37
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6925 | 7.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.0334 | 2.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9162 | 27.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1448 | -1.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0245 | 0.11 |
| γ3 | 0.2800 | 1.95* |
| γ4 | -0.3781 | -2.81*** |
| γ5 | 0.2268 | 1.11 |
| γ6 | 0.4243 | 1.21 |
| γ7 | -0.9346 | -2.00** |
| γ8 | 0.8537 | 1.98** |
| γ9 | -0.6914 | -1.71* |
| γ10 | 2.3785 | 2.45** |
0.950
Persistence13d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6925 | 7.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0334 | 2.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9162 | 27.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1448 | -1.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0245 | 0.11 |
| γ3 | 0.2800 | 1.95* |
| γ4 | -0.3781 | -2.81*** |
| γ5 | 0.2268 | 1.11 |
| γ6 | 0.4243 | 1.21 |
| γ7 | -0.9346 | -2.00** |
| γ8 | 0.8537 | 1.98** |
| γ9 | -0.6914 | -1.71* |
| γ10 | 2.3785 | 2.45** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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