V-Lab
Best Holdings PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
12,762.04
increased by 2,980.94
1 Week
7,849.84
decreased by 1,931.26
1 Month
5,614.47
decreased by 4,166.63
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2024 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 252 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~252 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8222 | 1.36 |
| αARCH | 0.5335 | 20.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4638 | 19.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0196 | -0.09 |
0.997
Persistence252d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8222 | 1.36 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5335 | 20.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4638 | 19.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0196 | -0.09 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
252 days
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