V-Lab
Beryl 8 Plus Public Company Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
11,551.14
increased by 3,217.15
1 Week
8,203.95
decreased by 130.04
1 Month
4,857.19
decreased by 3,476.80
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7345 | 3.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2198 | 10.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7667 | 32.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1215 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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