V-Lab
Azelis Group Nv Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,893.23
increased by 285.83
1 Week
4,746.94
increased by 139.54
1 Month
4,655.21
increased by 47.81
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 150 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~150 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4690 | 5.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.0489 | 4.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9465 | 70.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0378 | -0.62 |
0.995
Persistence150d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4690 | 5.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0489 | 4.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9465 | 70.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0378 | -0.62 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
150 days
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