V-Lab
Accent Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
16,156.70
increased by 365.83
1 Week
15,986.20
increased by 195.33
1 Month
20,316.85
increased by 4,525.98
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 7, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8758 | 6.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.1008 | 6.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8227 | 32.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8861 | -5.53*** |
| γ2 | 1.1385 | 3.98*** |
| γ3 | -0.6737 | -1.77* |
| γ4 | 0.6687 | 1.52 |
| γ5 | -0.2469 | -0.80 |
| γ6 | 0.1658 | 0.91 |
| γ7 | -0.3027 | -2.44** |
| γ8 | 0.2946 | 3.19*** |
| γ9 | -0.3576 | -3.94*** |
| γ10 | 0.7024 | 4.58*** |
0.923
Persistence9d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8758 | 6.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1008 | 6.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8227 | 32.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8861 | -5.53*** |
| γ2 | 1.1385 | 3.98*** |
| γ3 | -0.6737 | -1.77* |
| γ4 | 0.6687 | 1.52 |
| γ5 | -0.2469 | -0.80 |
| γ6 | 0.1658 | 0.91 |
| γ7 | -0.3027 | -2.44** |
| γ8 | 0.2946 | 3.19*** |
| γ9 | -0.3576 | -3.94*** |
| γ10 | 0.7024 | 4.58*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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