V-Lab
AVG Logistics Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
7,559.75
increased by 4,659.52
1 Week
4,471.94
increased by 1,571.71
1 Month
3,195.46
increased by 295.23
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4802 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2282 | 8.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7455 | 27.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -2.6802 | -4.61*** |
| γ2 | 1.9293 | 2.08** |
| γ3 | 3.3386 | 4.14*** |
| γ4 | -4.9258 | -5.47*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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