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After YOU PCL Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026

1 Day

5,471.58

increased by 204.38

1 Week

5,624.66

increased by 357.46

1 Month

4,696.84

decreased by 570.36

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/04/2024

to

11/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of After YOU PCL ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 23, 2016 to Nov 3, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2440
9.41***
αARCH0.1502
10.49***
βGARCH0.8257
51.76***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0231
2.17**

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2440
9.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1502
10.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8257
51.76***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0231
2.17**

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days