Ames National Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
7,350.56
decreased by 54.22
1 Week
7,633.21
increased by 228.43
1 Month
5,652.66
decreased by 1,752.12
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 1997 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3973 | 6.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1126 | 9.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8740 | 69.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0029 | 0.60 |
| γ2 | -0.0079 | -0.88 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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