Ames National Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
6,194.11
1 Week
7,146.99
1 Month
5,260.92
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 8, 1997 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1651 | 1.12 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6585 | 14.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1651 | -0.51 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1009 | 1.53 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8991 | 32.65*** |
Persistence:
0.741
Half-life:
2 days
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