Ataa Educational Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, November 15th, 2026
1 Day
3,867.65
decreased by 602.48
1 Week
4,946.42
increased by 476.29
1 Month
6,431.57
increased by 1,961.44
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2019 to Nov 12, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1488 | 6.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.1848 | 8.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7940 | 33.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0217 | 0.99 |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1488 | 6.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1848 | 8.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7940 | 33.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0217 | 0.99 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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