Assembly Biosciences Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
4,876.11
decreased by 390.25
1 Week
5,436.08
increased by 169.72
1 Month
5,756.12
increased by 489.76
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2010 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8174 | 1.90* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1499 | 0.26 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8500 | 1.49 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0351 | -0.08 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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