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Asuransi Bintang Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

11,309.20

increased by 9,688.70

1 Week

3,330.84

increased by 1,710.34

1 Month

3,358.26

increased by 1,737.76

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Asuransi Bintang ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 24, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 205 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~205 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.7502
2.68***
αARCH0.1909
7.17***
βGARCH0.8057
31.02***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.8150
-1.11
γ22.1818
1.89*
γ3-2.9855
-4.56***
γ43.0412
5.17***
γ5-1.5926
-1.98**
γ6-0.8250
-0.68
γ71.2790
0.77
γ80.7283
0.54
γ9-1.9234
-2.56**
γ100.7412
0.75

0.997

Persistence

205d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.7502
2.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1909
7.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8057
31.02***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.8150
-1.11
γ22.1818
1.89*
γ3-2.9855
-4.56***
γ43.0412
5.17***
γ5-1.5926
-1.98**
γ6-0.8250
-0.68
γ71.2790
0.77
γ80.7283
0.54
γ9-1.9234
-2.56**
γ100.7412
0.75

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

205 days