V-Lab
Asuransi Bintang Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
11,309.20
increased by 9,688.70
1 Week
3,330.84
increased by 1,710.34
1 Month
3,358.26
increased by 1,737.76
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 205 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~205 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.7502 | 2.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.1909 | 7.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8057 | 31.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8150 | -1.11 |
| γ2 | 2.1818 | 1.89* |
| γ3 | -2.9855 | -4.56*** |
| γ4 | 3.0412 | 5.17*** |
| γ5 | -1.5926 | -1.98** |
| γ6 | -0.8250 | -0.68 |
| γ7 | 1.2790 | 0.77 |
| γ8 | 0.7283 | 0.54 |
| γ9 | -1.9234 | -2.56** |
| γ10 | 0.7412 | 0.75 |
0.997
Persistence205d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.7502 | 2.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1909 | 7.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8057 | 31.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8150 | -1.11 |
| γ2 | 2.1818 | 1.89* |
| γ3 | -2.9855 | -4.56*** |
| γ4 | 3.0412 | 5.17*** |
| γ5 | -1.5926 | -1.98** |
| γ6 | -0.8250 | -0.68 |
| γ7 | 1.2790 | 0.77 |
| γ8 | 0.7283 | 0.54 |
| γ9 | -1.9234 | -2.56** |
| γ10 | 0.7412 | 0.75 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
205 days
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