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Arqit Quantum Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

15,313.44

decreased by 731.18

1 Week

14,475.86

decreased by 1,568.76

1 Month

9,599.11

decreased by 6,445.51

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Arqit Quantum Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 4, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst44.1737
2.99***
αARCH0.2035
10.02***
βGARCH0.7781
29.27***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ15.4384
6.25***
γ2-8.0370
-6.76***
γ34.5921
7.83***

0.982

Persistence

37d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

44.1737
2.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2035
10.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7781
29.27***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ15.4384
6.25***
γ2-8.0370
-6.76***
γ34.5921
7.83***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days