Arqit Quantum Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
5,992.11
decreased by 1,255.25
1 Week
6,966.83
decreased by 280.53
1 Month
5,371.77
decreased by 1,875.59
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 43.4673 | 2.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2058 | 9.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7746 | 28.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 5.7617 | 6.35*** |
| γ2 | -8.3505 | -6.78*** |
| γ3 | 4.2139 | 7.20*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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