V-Lab
Apimeds Pharmaceutica US Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
326,600.30
decreased by 24,903.40
1 Week
390,978.54
increased by 39,474.84
1 Month
612,195.81
increased by 260,692.11
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2951 | 5.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.2392 | 3.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6206 | 5.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.8132 | -1.19 |
0.860
Persistence5d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2951 | 5.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2392 | 3.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6206 | 5.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.8132 | -1.19 |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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