V-Lab
Apimeds Pharmaceutica US Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
686,712.40
increased by 14,887.80
1 Week
738,703.52
increased by 66,878.92
1 Month
675,483.52
increased by 3,658.92
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3292 | 5.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.2530 | 3.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6086 | 5.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.6496 | -0.93 |
0.862
Persistence5d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3292 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2530 | 3.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6086 | 5.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.6496 | -0.93 |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
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