Apimeds Pharmaceutica US Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
269,008.60
decreased by 47,794.90
1 Week
225,637.82
decreased by 91,165.68
1 Month
255,141.89
decreased by 61,661.61
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0659 | 4.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.2869 | 4.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6199 | 7.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.1079 | -2.83*** |
0.907
Persistence7d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0659 | 4.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2869 | 4.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6199 | 7.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.1079 | -2.83*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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