V-Lab
Alphageo Ltd (India) Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
5,023.93
increased by 1,012.91
1 Week
4,223.00
increased by 211.98
1 Month
8,394.96
increased by 4,383.94
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 25.6772 | 3.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1888 | 9.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8013 | 33.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.1939 | -1.77* |
| γ2 | 4.0677 | 2.68*** |
| γ3 | -3.7071 | -2.93*** |
| γ4 | -0.0316 | -0.07 |
| γ5 | 1.4988 | 7.61*** |
| γ6 | -0.8176 | -5.63*** |
| γ7 | 0.2544 | 2.23** |
| γ8 | -0.0535 | -0.32 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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