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Americanas S A Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

4,609.28

decreased by 216.91

1 Week

4,921.31

increased by 95.12

1 Month

4,750.63

decreased by 75.56

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Americanas S A ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 9, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3636
2.33**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1067
1.73*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8933
14.50***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0121
0.26

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

77016 days