Americanas S A Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4,609.28
decreased by 216.91
1 Week
4,921.31
increased by 95.12
1 Month
4,750.63
decreased by 75.56
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3636 | 2.33** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1067 | 1.73* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8933 | 14.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0121 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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