Americanas S A ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4,111.74
1 Week
4,433.81
1 Month
4,409.42
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1170 | 1.75* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8255 | 174.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0165 | -0.12 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.3101 | 4.78*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2665 | 26.95*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7335 | 4.84*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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