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Alwasail Industrial Company Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, September 27th, 2026

1 Day

5,795.16

increased by 461.21

1 Week

5,490.88

increased by 156.93

1 Month

3,815.15

decreased by 1,518.80

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC

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graph of Alwasail Industrial Company ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 2022 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~159 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0728
6.26***
αARCH0.1184
4.59***
βGARCH0.8772
28.53***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.3552
-2.32**

0.996

Persistence

159d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0728
6.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1184
4.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8772
28.53***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.3552
-2.32**

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

159 days