V-Lab
Alwasail Industrial Company Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, September 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,795.16
increased by 461.21
1 Week
5,490.88
increased by 156.93
1 Month
3,815.15
decreased by 1,518.80
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 2022 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~159 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0728 | 6.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.1184 | 4.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8772 | 28.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.3552 | -2.32** |
0.996
Persistence159d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0728 | 6.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1184 | 4.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8772 | 28.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.3552 | -2.32** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
159 days
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