V-Lab
Saudi Fransi Cooperative Ins Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 2nd, 2026
1 Day
11,590.14
increased by 6,203.05
1 Week
5,343.45
decreased by 43.64
1 Month
4,850.66
decreased by 536.43
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 2007 to Jul 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1947 trading days (~7.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2402 | 2.33** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2676 | 7.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7321 | 20.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.8527 | 0.43 |
| γ2 | -2.2883 | -1.05 |
| γ3 | 2.0461 | 1.92* |
| γ4 | -0.0013 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -5.2578 | -1.46 |
| γ6 | 13.7025 | 1.42 |
| γ7 | -17.3541 | -1.46 |
| γ8 | 13.4758 | 1.62 |
| γ9 | -7.0027 | -1.71* |
| γ10 | 1.7585 | 1.19 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1947 days
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