V-Lab
Potentially AI PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
802,546.90
increased by 366.90
1 Week
821,620.48
increased by 19,440.48
1 Month
957,527.82
increased by 155,347.82
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4747 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -7.6681 | |
| γ2 | 8.3033 | |
| γ3 | -1.6359 | |
| γ4 | 3.3963 | |
| γ5 | -2.6704 | |
| γ6 | -1.7852 | |
| γ7 | 11.3146 | |
| γ8 | -27.0306 | |
| γ9 | 28.9695 | |
| γ10 | -14.8134 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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