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Potentially AI PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

802,546.90

increased by 366.90

1 Week

821,620.48

increased by 19,440.48

1 Month

957,527.82

increased by 155,347.82

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Potentially AI PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4747
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

1.0000
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-7.6681
γ28.3033
γ3-1.6359
γ43.3963
γ5-2.6704
γ6-1.7852
γ711.3146
γ8-27.0306
γ928.9695
γ10-14.8134

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

173286 days