V-Lab
Agenus Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026
1 Day
6,658.14
increased by 658.04
1 Week
6,656.96
increased by 656.86
1 Month
5,782.29
decreased by 217.81
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 12602 trading days (~50.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9376 | 7.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1656 | 22.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8343 | 111.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0468 | -5.02*** |
| γ2 | 0.0736 | 5.19*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
12602 days
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