V-Lab
Alliances Developpement Immobilier SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
6,614.45
decreased by 181.53
1 Week
6,835.42
increased by 39.44
1 Month
9,035.40
increased by 2,239.42
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2008 to Aug 19, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7889 | 2.03** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1857 | 7.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7734 | 36.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1124 | 0.40 |
| γ2 | 0.0866 | 0.20 |
| γ3 | -0.2314 | -0.50 |
| γ4 | -0.4959 | -0.98 |
| γ5 | 1.4841 | 4.06*** |
| γ6 | -1.8575 | -7.49*** |
| γ7 | 1.0882 | 4.46*** |
| γ8 | -0.5088 | -1.92* |
| γ9 | 1.6595 | 4.71*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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