V-Lab
Aarey Drugs & Pharma Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026
1 Day
3,112.21
decreased by 587.83
1 Week
4,471.86
increased by 771.82
1 Month
8,025.02
increased by 4,324.98
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 15, 2012 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5602 | 0.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2751 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7249 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.1226 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.1078 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -13.1895 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 25.0096 | 0.02 |
| γ5 | -13.5102 | -0.01 |
| γ6 | -3.1635 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 5.9764 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -4.1389 | -0.05 |
| γ9 | 1.9527 | 0.03 |
| γ10 | -0.6215 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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