ACCO Brands Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
5,772.31
decreased by 171.72
1 Week
5,306.32
decreased by 637.71
1 Month
5,502.52
decreased by 441.51
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 12, 2005 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8281 | 2.23** |
| αARCH | 0.1751 | 9.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8062 | 75.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0017 | 0.55 |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8281 | 2.23** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1751 | 9.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8062 | 75.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0017 | 0.55 |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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