V-Lab
Aurora Cannabis Inc. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
5,227.08
decreased by 897.63
1 Week
5,453.18
decreased by 671.53
1 Month
4,538.09
decreased by 1,586.62
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 11, 2014 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~231049 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5090 | 0.68 |
| αARCH | 0.1472 | 0.01 |
| βGARCH | 0.8528 | 0.07 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0038 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence231049d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5090 | 0.68 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1472 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8528 | 0.07 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0038 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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