Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Aurora Cannabis Inc. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

5,227.08

decreased by 897.63

1 Week

5,453.18

decreased by 671.53

1 Month

4,538.09

decreased by 1,586.62

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Aurora Cannabis Inc. ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 11, 2014 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~231049 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5090
0.68
αARCH0.1472
0.01
βGARCH0.8528
0.07
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0038
0.00

1.000

Persistence

231049d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5090
0.68
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1472
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8528
0.07
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0038
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231049 days