V-Lab
American Battery Tech Comp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
6,382.75
decreased by 1,073.84
1 Week
6,919.78
decreased by 536.81
1 Month
6,917.13
decreased by 539.46
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 23, 2016 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 13078 trading days (~51.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4042 | 0.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3224 | 0.37 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6775 | 0.77 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5825 | -0.02 |
| γ2 | -4.5959 | -0.14 |
| γ3 | 9.5035 | 0.79 |
| γ4 | -9.0954 | -1.20 |
| γ5 | 9.4059 | 1.48 |
| γ6 | -6.9620 | -1.38 |
| γ7 | 7.3503 | 1.47 |
| γ8 | -7.1847 | -1.02 |
| γ9 | -4.0873 | -0.51 |
| γ10 | 15.1328 | 1.76* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
13078 days
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