V-Lab
Aamra Technologies Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
9,443.55
decreased by 648.98
1 Week
8,041.21
decreased by 2,051.32
1 Month
4,888.47
decreased by 5,204.06
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 24, 2012 to Aug 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 62 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9140 | 2.49** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2703 | 10.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7186 | 28.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0883 | -0.54 |
| γ2 | 0.6225 | 2.26** |
| γ3 | -1.4573 | -5.52*** |
| γ4 | 1.9676 | 8.27*** |
| γ5 | -2.0513 | -9.11*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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