V-Lab
SEM Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
5,678.81
decreased by 17.54
1 Week
5,650.75
decreased by 45.60
1 Month
5,750.41
increased by 54.06
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 14, 2020 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2394 | 2.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0990 | 3.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8132 | 14.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 3.4188 | 1.33 |
| γ2 | -5.5259 | -1.46 |
| γ3 | 3.4626 | 1.47 |
| γ4 | -3.3751 | -1.24 |
| γ5 | 3.6089 | 1.17 |
| γ6 | -9.3453 | -2.89*** |
| γ7 | 16.3014 | 5.29*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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