Biken Techno Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
4,605.52
decreased by 341.39
1 Week
5,139.42
increased by 192.51
1 Month
6,013.09
increased by 1,066.18
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 12:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9412 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1007 | 0.12 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8992 | 1.11 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0451 | -0.06 |
| γ2 | 0.0542 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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