V-Lab
Eurasia Travel Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
8,811.58
increased by 5,271.99
1 Week
4,080.10
increased by 540.51
1 Month
2,949.78
decreased by 589.81
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.6219 | 4.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.1605 | 10.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7924 | 40.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2815 | -1.84* |
| γ2 | 1.1365 | 4.71*** |
| γ3 | -1.3235 | -7.03*** |
| γ4 | 0.3829 | 2.19** |
| γ5 | 0.0896 | 0.47 |
| γ6 | 0.1592 | 0.67 |
| γ7 | -0.5447 | -2.45** |
| γ8 | 1.0020 | 6.35*** |
| γ9 | -1.2241 | -8.21*** |
| γ10 | 0.9828 | 3.79*** |
0.953
Persistence14d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6219 | 4.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1605 | 10.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7924 | 40.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2815 | -1.84* |
| γ2 | 1.1365 | 4.71*** |
| γ3 | -1.3235 | -7.03*** |
| γ4 | 0.3829 | 2.19** |
| γ5 | 0.0896 | 0.47 |
| γ6 | 0.1592 | 0.67 |
| γ7 | -0.5447 | -2.45** |
| γ8 | 1.0020 | 6.35*** |
| γ9 | -1.2241 | -8.21*** |
| γ10 | 0.9828 | 3.79*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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