Suzuyo Shinwart Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
7,207.13
increased by 3,517.71
1 Week
4,495.29
increased by 805.87
1 Month
3,236.81
decreased by 452.61
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3348 trading days (~13.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0585 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1295 | 17.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8703 | 114.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.3085 | -3.77*** |
| γ2 | 0.4619 | 4.32*** |
| γ3 | -0.2887 | -6.11*** |
| γ4 | 0.2918 | 5.67*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3348 days
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