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Suzuyo Shinwart Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

6,384.20

increased by 3,264.28

1 Week

3,791.26

increased by 671.34

1 Month

2,637.09

decreased by 482.83

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Suzuyo Shinwart Corp ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 3, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 51% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
2.55**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0773
27.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9031
601.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0392
8.51***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days