Japan Oil Transportation Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
4,922.65
increased by 3,398.67
1 Week
3,223.31
increased by 1,699.33
1 Month
1,608.99
increased by 85.01
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 12:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9829 | 6.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1125 | 14.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8824 | 110.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -0.40 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
135 days
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