Japan Oil Transportation Co ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
6,684.86
1 Week
4,108.17
1 Month
1,775.80
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 12:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 2, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1506 | 0.42 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6938 | 24.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0770 | -0.11 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 7.4401 | 0.49 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1132 | 0.50 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8862 | 19.01*** |
Persistence:
0.806
Half-life:
3 days
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