V-Lab
Izutsuya Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
6,383.88
increased by 2,842.79
1 Week
4,431.18
increased by 890.09
1 Month
4,050.51
increased by 509.42
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 10830 trading days (~43.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1092 | 3.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1642 | 17.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8357 | 89.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0049 | -2.21** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
10830 days
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