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Izutsuya Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

6,383.88

increased by 2,842.79

1 Week

4,431.18

increased by 890.09

1 Month

4,050.51

increased by 509.42

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Izutsuya Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 1, 1992 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 10830 trading days (~43.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1092
3.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1642
17.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8357
89.86***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0049
-2.21**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

10830 days