V-Lab
Tomita Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
6,365.53
decreased by 383.59
1 Week
6,784.34
increased by 35.22
1 Month
7,342.06
increased by 592.94
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1996 | 4.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0857 | 7.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9082 | 68.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0193 | -5.46*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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