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Tomita Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

7,213.40

decreased by 152.78

1 Week

7,164.64

decreased by 201.54

1 Month

8,398.28

increased by 1,032.10

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tomita Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 26, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2066
4.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0856
7.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9084
69.19***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0193
-5.44***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

116 days