V-Lab
Tomita Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
7,213.40
decreased by 152.78
1 Week
7,164.64
decreased by 201.54
1 Month
8,398.28
increased by 1,032.10
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2066 | 4.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0856 | 7.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9084 | 69.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0193 | -5.44*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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