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Tomita Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

6,365.53

decreased by 383.59

1 Week

6,784.34

increased by 35.22

1 Month

7,342.06

increased by 592.94

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:41 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tomita Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 26, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1996
4.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0857
7.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9082
68.83***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0193
-5.46***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

113 days