King Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
8,188.73
decreased by 194.53
1 Week
8,282.95
decreased by 100.31
1 Month
6,453.95
decreased by 1,929.31
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5763 | 6.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1206 | 12.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8552 | 71.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1737 | -5.65*** |
| γ2 | 0.3209 | 6.71*** |
| γ3 | -0.2879 | -8.34*** |
| γ4 | 0.2354 | 7.28*** |
| γ5 | -0.1147 | -3.91*** |
| γ6 | 0.0876 | 2.12** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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