King Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
6,794.88
1 Week
6,806.96
1 Month
5,629.23
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 36% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 4.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0708 | 23.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9163 | 684.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0258 | 4.66*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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