V-Lab
Chip Hope Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
9,623.09
increased by 6,199.25
1 Week
3,987.06
increased by 563.22
1 Month
1,610.39
decreased by 1,813.45
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2373 trading days (~9.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2373 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2680 | 3.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.1899 | 14.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8098 | 62.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0554 | -6.31*** |
1.000
Persistence2373d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2680 | 3.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1899 | 14.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8098 | 62.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0554 | -6.31*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2373 days
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