7Road Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
7,895.06
increased by 6,763.10
1 Week
2,234.38
increased by 1,102.42
1 Month
1,720.84
increased by 588.88
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 11:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2018 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3491 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3326 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6674 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 22.8167 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -60.0759 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 56.3110 | 0.14 |
| γ4 | -25.2647 | -0.02 |
| γ5 | 19.0379 | 0.01 |
| γ6 | -28.6790 | -0.02 |
| γ7 | 28.3230 | 0.03 |
| γ8 | -24.9568 | -0.13 |
| γ9 | 26.2080 | 0.02 |
| γ10 | -68.6835 | -0.05 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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