V-Lab
Fujicopian Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
6,132.99
increased by 2,640.84
1 Week
4,114.82
increased by 622.67
1 Month
3,158.18
decreased by 333.97
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 1993 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4507 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1160 | 10.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8528 | 61.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.1805 | 2.43** |
| γ2 | -0.5086 | -4.96*** |
| γ3 | 0.6367 | 12.53*** |
| γ4 | -0.5094 | -11.11*** |
| γ5 | 0.2506 | 4.96*** |
| γ6 | 0.0183 | 0.36 |
| γ7 | -0.2654 | -4.09*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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