V-Lab
Sougou Shouken Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
10,557.10
increased by 6,923.95
1 Week
4,999.71
increased by 1,366.56
1 Month
4,216.78
increased by 583.63
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3946 | 5.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1580 | 11.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8156 | 57.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.1347 | 2.46** |
| γ2 | -0.3127 | -3.64*** |
| γ3 | 0.3651 | 5.95*** |
| γ4 | -0.3105 | -4.62*** |
| γ5 | 0.1533 | 1.42 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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