Reform Technology Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
8,712.48
increased by 6,038.89
1 Week
4,141.12
increased by 1,467.53
1 Month
2,946.33
increased by 272.74
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 23, 2020 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5218 | 7.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.2092 | 8.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7419 | 26.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1130 | -3.78*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5218 | 7.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2092 | 8.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7419 | 26.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1130 | -3.78*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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