V-Lab
Forward Science Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
2,079.03
decreased by 1,035.73
1 Week
2,566.60
decreased by 548.16
1 Month
4,487.88
increased by 1,373.12
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 02:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3141 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3597 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6403 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -37.1850 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 47.6885 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -11.1659 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 0.7520 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -1.5911 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -4.7417 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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