V-Lab
Nagaileben Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
44.33
decreased by 3.83
1 Week
50.46
increased by 2.30
1 Month
74.85
increased by 26.69
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 64 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9417 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1017 | 10.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8875 | 73.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.2003 | -6.22*** |
| γ2 | 0.3036 | 6.55*** |
| γ3 | -0.1507 | -5.68*** |
| γ4 | 0.0811 | 3.64*** |
| γ5 | -0.0737 | -2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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