V-Lab
Harima-Kyowa Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
6,254.29
decreased by 704.33
1 Week
5,188.39
decreased by 1,770.23
1 Month
4,248.47
decreased by 2,710.15
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.5311 | 4.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1133 | 8.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8335 | 40.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0836 | 0.46 |
| γ2 | 0.1920 | 0.70 |
| γ3 | -0.5306 | -2.80*** |
| γ4 | 0.3298 | 1.77* |
| γ5 | -0.3246 | -1.59 |
| γ6 | 0.8388 | 5.25*** |
| γ7 | -1.1518 | -8.39*** |
| γ8 | 0.8401 | 3.88*** |
| γ9 | -0.3701 | -1.05 |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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